Day: July 13, 2022

CHAD

ARMED ATTACK BY NSAG KILLS FIVE

On 11 July, an armed attack carried out by a non-State armed group (NSAG) in the western Lac region against a local Security Defence Force (SDF) position killed five SDF forces and injured two more. Two NSAG assailants were also gravely injured. Following the end of a military operation against NSAGs in Niger and Nigeria last June, the Chadian SDF is still on alert following threats of reprisals. The concerned area neighbours a settlement hosting the largest number of internally displaced persons (approximately 30,000 IDPs) in the region. These continuing security incidents have limited humanitarian access in the area.

CAMEROON

INCREASE IN NUMBER OF ATTACKS RECORDED IN THE WEST REGION

Between June and July 2022, three attacks were recorded in the West region. While the recent attacks are between NSAG and State Security Forces (SSF), the escalation of conflict is of concern for a region which hosts 85,000 displaced people from the North-West and South-West regions due to the crisis. On 7 June, a non-State armed group (NSAG) attacked a State Security Forces (SSF) post in Njitapon, Kouoptamo in Noun division, killing five SSF elements and injuring others. On 27 June, an NSAG attacked the Divisional Officer’s residence and the Gendarmerie office in Babadjou, Bamboutos division, resulting in injuries of some gendarmes and NSAG members. On 1 July, a NSAG attacked the Fondonera locality in Menoua division, allegedly burning two cars and three bikes in the market and looting some food items. No human casualties were reported, however, the incident caused fear among the population.

BURKINA FASO

ATTACK KILLS FIVE AND DAMAGES HUMANITARIAN WAREHOUSE

On 10 July, non-State armed group (NSAG) members attacked a military position in Barsalogho commune, northern Centre-Nord region. Initial reports indicate that five civilians were killed in the crossfire, including the manager of a humanitarian warehouse facility, and eight soldiers were wounded.

Considerable infrastructural damage was also reported, including to a humanitarian warehouse and to a community centre housing internally displaced persons (IDPs).

The security situation in Barsalogho has been deteriorating following the attacks of an IDP site in October and of the gendarmerie post in Foubé, a village to the north, in December 2021. On the main access route, NSAGs checkpoints are frequently set up, and goods, including humanitarian commodities, have been diverted. Barsalogho hosts the second largest number of IDPs in the Centre-Nord region (after the regional capital Kaya), with some 93,000 IDPs officially registered as of 30 April. Despite access constraints, humanitarian assistance continues.

CHOLERA EPIDEMIC DECLARED IN THE EST REGION

The Ministry of Health announced on 6 July that a case of cholera had been confirmed in Kantchari commune in the Est region.

According to WHO, the confirmed case has been declared cured and released and appropriate follow-up measures have been taken. WHO is preparing the deployment of cholera kits for pre-positioning and working on a regional response plan.

Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

By the end of June, the early stages of the rainfall season are coming to an end. So far, the 2022 rainy season in West Africa has been characterised by variable conditions. Over the course of the month, rainfall deficits were particularly pronounced during the first dekad of June and mainly affected the Central Sahel (western Niger, north-eastern Burkina Faso, eastern Mali), central Mali, eastern Guinea, western Cote d’Ivoire, south-western Cameroon and the Lake Chad Basin. Over the course of the month of June rainfall improved and offset some of the early season deficits recorded in the westernmost parts of West Africa (Senegal, southern Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau), as well as in central Burkina Faso, central Chad and central Niger. Coastal countries including Benin, Togo, Ghana, parts of Nigeria and southern Cameroon, as well as the south-eastern parts of the region (southern Chad and CAR) benefitted from favourable rainfall conditions in June.

Over the past two (2) months (May-June 2022), the conditions reflect the patterns observed in June, with overall mixed conditions across the region. While some areas including the western (Senegal, southern Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau), southern (Ghana, Benin, Togo) and south-eastern (southern Chad, CAR, southern Cameroon) parts of the region experienced above normal rainfall, the seasonal rains were normal to below normal in the rest of West Africa. Particularly in the Central Sahel, the Lake Chad Basin, northwestern Nigeria and western Cote d’Ivoire, moderate to severe rainfall deficits were recorded during this period. While especially in the Sahelian areas these are unlikely to significantly impact the agricultural season, which usually starts a bit later, the progression of the rains in these areas will need to be monitored closely.

Vegetation conditions are below average over a wide area in the Sahel from western Mali across Burkina Faso and northern Nigeria to southern Chad. Vegetation deficits are particularly pronounced in the eastern parts of the region (in northern (Benin, Togo and Nigeria) and southern Chad). In some areas, these conditions are expected to improve due to above normal rains received in mid to late June. On the other hand, better than normal vegetation conditions can be observed in Senegal, northern Niger and Chad, where above normal rainfall was received in early June.

The short-term forecasts indicate that by early-July (10 July 2022), seasonal rainfall will likely be above average in the western part of the region (in Senegal, southern Mauritania, Guinea Bissau) as well as over western Guinea, Sierra Leone, western Liberia as well as south-eastern Cameroon and CAR. This might partially offset the rainfall deficits in the western parts of the Sahel (Senegal, southern Mauritania, and Guinea Bissau) and the lead to more favorable conditions during the early stages of the growing season.

According to the 2022 PRESASS seasonal forecast, average to above average seasonal rainfall is expected in most of the Sahelian Belt (from Senegal through to Chad), including Cabo Verde. Average to below average rainfall is expected in south-eastern Nigeria and south-western Cameroon. The seasonal forecast also suggests that the start of the season will be early to normal, with shorter than normal dry spells during the first half of the rainy season across the Sahelo-Sudanian zone.

Source: World Food Programme

1. IMPACT ON FOOD ACCESS AND AVAILABILITY

Wheat and wheat products account for 25 percent of the average total cereal consumption in Eastern Africa with the highest consumption per capita in Djibouti, Eritrea and Sudan. Up to 84 percent of wheat demand in the region is met by imports. Considering reliance on direct imports from Russia and Ukraine, rising global prices since the start of the war and significant internal challenges. Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan are likely to be the hardest hit by the ongoing conflict.

The Ukrainian Government banned the export of wheat, oats, millet, buckwheat and some other food products to forestall a food crisis and stabilize the market. The partial ban on wheat and grains by Russia effective 15 March through 30 June (read here) will further squeeze global supplies which in effect will cause shortfalls due to reduced imports of wheat in net importer countries. The shortfall might be partially compensated by other alternative products which would lead to increased demand for substitute products, pushing up prices of other cereals in the region.

Based on WFP’s calculations, access and availability of wheat-based products in Sudan is worrisome as almost 50 percent of wheat-based products are supplied by Russia and Ukraine while wheat domestically produced and current stocks alone are estimated to cover the domestic wheat demand for three months only.

With over 70 percent of total global production of sunflower oil originating from Russia and Ukraine, destabilized export trade, delays, and higher shipping costs will directly impact the global supply of sunflower-seed oil and consequently prices, further deepening vegetable oil supply chain woes experienced in the previous year.

Russia and Ukraine supplied 78 percent and 95 percent of sunflower-seed oil imports to Kenya and Sudan respectively.

Sudan is likely to be more vulnerable to anticipated conflictinduced trade disruptions once existing stocks of sunflowerseed oil are depleted.

Source: World Food Programme