Terrorism Dynamics Shift in West Africa and the Sahel

New york: Terrorism in West Africa and the Sahel is evolving as groups administer territories, control trade routes, exploit new technologies, and expand their influence towards the Gulf of Guinea. Government responses are lagging while regional dialogue efforts are struggling to gain traction. According to United Nations, Leonardo Santos Simo, head of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), highlighted before the Security Council the acute threat posed by terrorist groups and non-State armed groups, especially in the central Sahel and northern Nigeria. These groups are now targeting coastal states in the Gulf of Guinea with increased sophistication, employing drones, advanced communication tools, and cryptocurrencies. In Mali, recent attacks by a coalition including the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) have resulted in civilian and military casualties, including the Malian Minister of Defence. These offensives have led to continued fight ing in the north and disrupted supplies to the capital due to road blockades and attacks on power lines. In Niger, attacks have targeted Niamey airport and a military base in Tahoua. In Burkina Faso, the northern and eastern regions face ongoing drone attacks. The violence extends to Nigeria, where the north and central regions suffer from kidnappings and repeated attacks, heavily impacting civilians. The crisis has resulted in significant population displacements, with West Africa and the Sahel hosting nearly 6.8 million internally displaced persons by the end of February, alongside 1.3 million refugees and asylum seekers. The Gulf of Guinea States now accommodate approximately 220,000 refugees. Liberia has seen its Burkinabe national population triple since 2025, placing strain on resources and services. Humanitarian access is deteriorating due to funding shortfalls, affecting relief efforts. Women, children, and young people are disproportionately impacted by the crisis's consequences. Additionally, the re is a worrying rise in drug trafficking, particularly in coastal states, where authorities are conducting numerous seizures. Armed groups reportedly use these substances for their fighters, and cartels are exerting influence over public institutions, weakening them. This interconnectedness between terrorism, organized crime, and parallel economies further blurs the lines between insurgency, trafficking, and effective governance, creating a complex challenge for the region.