Day: August 11, 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted global food chains and is contributing to a crisis exacerbated by already-rising food prices and deepening poverty across much of the Middle East and parts of Africa.

Both Kyiv and Moscow are leading exporters of agricultural products to those regions, and the deepening ripple effects from the war are worrying governments and international organizations. The World Economic Forum has warned that crises in food, fuel, and finance worsened by the war could stoke unrest in poorer countries and push others into default.

A July deal struck by Turkey with Russia and Ukraine broke a monthslong Russian blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and provided some hope for relief, although United Nations officials have said the shipments are not reaching those most in need and are unlikely to stave off a growing international food crisis.

To find out more about the growing fallout from the war, RFE/RL spoke with Daniel Speckhard, a former U.S. official who is currently president of Corus International, a global aid organization. Speckhard previously served as U.S. ambassador to Belarus and Greece and was NATO’s deputy assistant secretary-general for political affairs, among other roles.

RFE/RL: You spent a large chunk of your career dealing with Russia, either directly or tangentially. How has the war in Ukraine changed the way that policymakers in Washington are seeing Moscow now compared to previous years? The last six months have changed many assumptions about Russian power. Where are things headed for how Washington sees the Kremlin and its foreign policy?

Daniel Speckhard: Because of Russia’s nuclear status, the power that they still wield in the world is significant. While its conventional war capabilities have perhaps been shown to be weaker than one might have thought, I think the fundamentals are still the same: You have a nuclear power that wants to play on the global stage as an equal to the United States and China — and they’re going to act as if they are.

That makes it more dangerous. So, I think the concerns in Washington and [other] Western capitals — and even in Beijing — is that this is actually a more dangerous situation because things can escalate more quickly. Also, Russia by no means sees their weakness in the way that we do.

For how it has changed, I think relations have been going downhill for some time, especially after Russia’s intervention in U.S. elections [in 2015 and 2016]. But the Ukraine situation has made it interesting in the context that the United States was very divided over Russian interference in the elections because there was a [domestic] political overlay that divided the country. The war in Ukraine has seen that mostly evaporate and, with the exception of a small group in the United States, there’s overwhelming support for [Kyiv].

Anti-Russian feeling in Washington has also risen in some ways [and] that has also boxed in what’s available on the foreign policy side for the foreseeable future. As a result, the part that I’m worried about is there are a lot of global issues that need to be addressed that do require Russian support and involvement, whether it’s the environment, terrorism, organized crime, or cybersecurity. All of these issues require international cooperation — and the fallout from the war could worsen many of those issues and make reaching the broad global consensus required difficult.

RFE/RL: Both Ukraine and Russia provide a lot of the world’s wheat, especially to countries that are on the margins with their food security. We’ve already seen grain shortages affect the world, but what are some of the wider knock-on effects that this war is triggering?

Speckhard: It starts with the humanitarian crisis that is currently playing out. Nearly 48 million people, according to the United Nations, are facing emergency levels of hunger and that is leading to acute malnutrition, starvation, and even death.

But even more importantly, there’s another 70 million people that have been pushed into poverty just since March because of what’s happening in Ukraine in terms of the shortages of food [and] the disruptions of supplies for these countries.

©In Lebanon, for instance, the price of a gallon of cooking oil can cost one month’s salary. It’s having an impact across many places, and what’s interesting — and concerning — about this from the foreign policy perspective is this isn’t going to stay as a humanitarian crisis. This is also going to lead to political crises and potentially security crises because when people get hungry, when economies get stressed to the brink — especially these countries, which are already suffering from economic and environmental disruptions — you get populations that are at the very end of survival and becoming desperate.

This leads to political upheaval and insecurity. Then that insecurity creates and feeds terrorism and violence across the world and interethnic and intertribal conflicts. So, I think we have to be very aware that there’s roughly 200 million people in 53 countries that are facing acute food insecurity. When we watch how this plays out across the Middle East and the Sahel in Africa, we are going to see knock-on effects that aren’t just humanitarian but are also political and security related.

So the challenge for the world’s leaders is not to be so focused just on the Russia and Ukraine situation — but that they also pay close attention to the very deep and desperate needs of many of these countries and help them stabilize and get through this difficult situation.

RFE/RL: There have been accusations by analysts and some Ukrainian officials that some of this is a deliberate strategy on Moscow’s part. How do you see it?

Speckhard: What I would say is, it’s a tertiary strategy, in the sense that the fundamental, central strategic objective here for Russia is Ukraine, but they are going to use all of this disruption as a target for their huge propaganda machine to blame the West for this.

You can already see that happening. There is a big public relations push being prepared, and I’d expect that to be accompanied by Russia sending aid and then having its propaganda networks talking about how weak and inefficient the UN response is in comparison.

Another angle is these strains that we’ve discussed will weaken governments and there will be lots of hungry people looking for answers — and they may start looking to authoritarian leaders that say they can protect them. Moscow has already been deepening its links with authoritarian regimes, especially in Africa, and has been providing security and economic assistance. They’ve been playing this game for decades, and I’d expect it to accelerate as new opportunities open up.

RFE/RL: What are some of the cards that can be played by the international community to help deal with this crisis? Apart from ending the war, what options exist?

Speckhard: What I think needs to happen is enough attention needs to be drawn to this at the international level.

It’s not enough for the United States to say this is happening or draw attention to it, but it needs broad international recognition at the UN, World Bank, G20, and other organizations. There also needs to be a broader push to put pressure on Russia.

I think there is an opportunity here for other countries to get involved, like we saw with Turkey being able to open up the Black Sea ports to allow food to flow again. So there is a chance for countries to step up and shine by focusing on the humanitarian needs of the rest of the world.

Things like that might not end the war — which would have the biggest impact — but they can certainly make a difference.

Copyright (c) 2015. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.

Ambassadors and High Commissioners,
Directors-General in the Presidency and the Department of International Relations and Cooperation,
Distinguished Guests,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
 
Good afternoon.
 
It is my great pleasure to welcome you as the incoming Heads of Mission to South Africa.

Since achieving democracy in 1994, South Africa has built strong and meaningful relationships with nations across the world.

Many of these relationships have their roots in the bonds of solidarity and friendship that were forged during the struggle against apartheid.

We remain grateful to all those countries, many of which are represented here today, that gave our leaders and fighters refuge, that provided material and moral support, and that mobilised for the isolation of the apartheid regime.

Just as we value your presence here, we are greatly encouraged by the value your respective governments place in maintaining and deepening relations with South Africa.
 
Three years ago, the world was confronted with an unprecedented global public health emergency.

As much as the COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating impact on health, livelihoods and national economies, it also brought about new forms of collaboration between countries and strengthened existing partnerships.
 
It also exposed some of the imbalances in global relations.
 
Many lower-income countries had to look on while wealthy nations hoarded most of the world’s COVID-19 vaccine doses.

Several African countries suffered from the imposition of arbitrary travel bans after new variants were detected in their countries.
 
From this pandemic, we have learned a number of lessons on how we engage with each other as countries and on the importance of mutual respect.
 
It is pleasing that all the continents of the world are represented here this afternoon since South Africa has always endeavoured to maintain friendly relations with all countries regardless of location, size or alignment.
 
We share a belief in the indivisible unity of humankind and in the centrality of international diplomacy as an instrument of progress, world peace and mutual prosperity.
 
With the pandemic in abeyance throughout much of the world, our most pressing priority is a swift and equitable economic recovery that leaves no-one behind.
 
Since 2020, South Africa has been implementing an Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan to lift our economy out of a prolonged period of slow growth, to create jobs and to undertake far-reaching economic reform.
 
At the same time, we are implementing programmes to alleviate poverty and inequality, to advance gender equality and to contribute our fair share towards addressing climate change and its impact.
 
Like most developing economies around the world, the pandemic has set back our national effort to meet the Sustainable Development Goals.
 
We are nonetheless forging ahead.
  
We are also pressing ahead with our ambitious investment drive to significantly increase the productive capacity of our economy.
  
We are working to clamp down on corruption and to restore the integrity and credibility of key public institutions.
 
Central to this effort is restoring good governance and improving the financial and operational performance of strategic state-owned enterprises.
 
We are making progress in stabilising public finances, improving financial controls at all levels of government and rooting out graft and mismanagement.
 
We have instituted a number of key policy reforms centred on the network industries, including energy, ports and rail, telecommunications and water infrastructure.
 
All of these are part of the broader effort to make South Africa a country in which it is easier to invest and to do business.
 
Our expectation of diplomacy in the post-COVID era is that it should deepen bilateral trade and investment between South Africa and the countries with which we have diplomatic ties.
 
This is no doubt an expectation your respective governments hold in turn.
  
We anticipate that the African Continental Free Trade Area will not only benefit countries on the continent, but will also create conditions for greater flows of trade and investment between Africa and the rest of the world.
 
We share a responsibility to strive to settle differences within and between countries peacefully.
  
South Africa promotes the centrality of multilateral institutions in managing global affairs and we will continue to urge respect for international law and agreements.
 
We seek to work with our partners across the world to build a more democratic, just and equitable world order, one which prioritises the needs and interests of the poor and vulnerable.
 
As the peoples of the world, we have a shared interest in ending poverty and in ending disparities of wealth, skills, resources, and access to education, health and social support.
 
South Africa stands ready to work with all governments and peoples towards achieving these objectives.
 
We trust that your presence in South Africa will further aid our efforts to build a better world that is more egalitarian, that is free of war and conflict, where the rights of women and girls are respected, and where we all play our part to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change.
 
In the words of our Freedom Charter, the forerunner to the South African Constitution, let there be peace and friendship.
 
We look forward to working with you to strengthen relations between our respective countries and to advance a global economic recovery that leaves no-one behind.
 
I thank you.

Source: The Presidency Republic of South Africa

Mogadishu, Somalia , August 12, 2022 — As 1 million people become displaced due to extreme drought in Somalia, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) is seeing a sharp rise in children under the age of 5 being admitted to IRC nutrition clinics across Somalia. One IRC clinic in Mogadishu recorded an 818% increase in admissions for severe malnutrition cases from February to June. The IRC is calling for the international community including world leaders and donors to immediately and urgently scale up funding and attention to the East Africa region.

Abukar Mohamud, IRC’s Deputy Director of Programs for Somalia said,

“We’re extremely concerned – the number of children we are seeing in our nutrition clinics has risen exponentially since the beginning of the year. If things continue on this trajectory, the consequences will be catastrophic. So many people we meet in the clinics recount stories of loved ones dying of hunger as they flee their homes in search for food, water and pasture – we are clearly seeing a famine looming on the horizon.”

“Somalia is seeing the worst of the crisis, with over 200,000 already living in the most extremes of hunger, but the challenge is regional. Across East Africa people are facing the worst drought in 40 years. By February 2023 up to 26 million people could experience extreme hunger if assistance isn’t drastically scaled up. . People are not just dying due to a lack of food. Hunger means their weakened bodies cannot fight off diseases like diarrhea, measles or malaria so death rates are high. Children are particularly at risk and often die at double the rate of adults. And those who survive will face ill health for the rest of their lives. The 2011 famine saw over 250,000 people die of hunger – half of whom were children.

“We must be clear – if famine is declared it will be too late for hundreds of thousands of people who are already living on so little food that they are in physical pain, their children’s growth has been stunted and they are leaving their homes in search of food.

“We need action now to bring the humanitarian response to scale and save lives. Donors should urgently channel funding to front line responders who can reach those most in need and deliver the interventions such as health programming, food and cash assistance, and clean water that people need to survive. Every day of delay will cause suffering to grow.”

East Africa is home to some of the IRC’s longest-running programs globally, with operations in Somalia for over 40 years, Kenya for 30 years and Ethiopia for 20 years. Today, over 2,000 IRC staff in the region are scaling up our programs to address the current drought and rising food insecurity, including expanding to new areas to meet severe needs.

Source: International Rescue Committee

HIGHLIGHTS: MOHAMMED GONI STADIUM CAMP, ECW UPDATES, MATERIALIZING LOCALIZATION, EDUCATION-CANNOT-WAIT INTERVENTIONS, GPE ACCELERATED FUNDS, 2023 HRP REACHED, PEACE AND EDUCATION IN AFRICA: A STUDY ON THE STATE OF PROTECTION OF EDUCATION FROM ATTACKS AND MILITARY USE IN AFRICA AND PEACE & EDUCATION: (VALIDATION WORKSHOP)

Source: UN Children’s Fund

A UN-chartered vessel should soon arrive at the Ukrainian port of Yuzhny, also known as Pivdennyi, to collect wheat that will help feed millions of hungry people in the Horn of Africa, the World Food Programme (WFP) reported on Friday.

This will be the first shipment of humanitarian food assistance under the Black Sea Grain Initiative signed last month by Ukraine, Russia and Türkiye.

WFP said the development marks “another important step in efforts to reintegrate Ukrainian food into global markets and get it to countries worst affected by the global food crisis through both commercial and humanitarian avenues.”

The MV Brave Commander is expected to berth shortly at Yuzhny, located on the Black Sea.

Supporting drought response

The ship departed the Turkish capital, Istanbul, on Wednesday after clearing inspection by the Joint Coordination Centre (JCC), the mechanism that supports implementation of the UN-brokered agreement on resuming grain exports from Ukraine.

The JCC will monitor the movement of commercial vessels transporting grain, foodstuffs and fertilizer from Yuzhny and two other key Ukrainian ports: Odesa and Chornomorsk.   

WFP has purchased the wheat for its operations in Ethiopia, supporting drought response in the Horn of Africa where the threat of famine looms.    

The UN agency recently warned of the dire food security situation across the region, following four consecutive failed rainy seasons.

The Horn of Africa is just one of many areas around the world where the near complete halt of Ukrainian grain and food on the global market has made life even harder for the families already struggling with rising hunger.    

A record 345 million people in 82 countries are now facing acute food insecurity, WFP said. Up to 50 million in 45 countries are at risk of being pushed into famine without humanitarian support.

Off to a good start

The Brave Commander will discharge the wheat in Djibouti after clearing the JCC protocols in Istanbul on the outbound trip.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative was signed on 22 July and so far, 12 vessels have been authorized to depart the Ukrainian ports, the senior UN official at the JCC told journalists this week.

Frederick Kenney, UN Interim Coordinator, said while there is still much work ahead, “we are off with a very good start”.

UN Coordinator appointed

On Friday,  Secretary-General António Guterres announced the appointment of Amir Mahmoud Abdulla as the UN Coordinator for the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Mr. Abdulla is the former Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer of WFP, overseeing its humanitarian operations around the world. 

He succeeds Mr. Kenney, who was on loan from the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

Source: United Nations